The United Kingdom and France to Deploy Military Personnel to Ukraine if a Ceasefire Accord is Agreed

The UK and France have formalized a declaration of intent concerning the deployment of military forces in Ukraine should a peace agreement be struck with Russia, the UK Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, has stated.

Following negotiations with Ukraine's allies in Paris, he noted that the allies would "establish operational bases across Ukraine and erect fortified structures for arms and equipment" to deter any potential incursion.

The coalition members also proposed that the America would assume leadership in monitoring a ceasefire.

The Kremlin has on multiple occasions warned that any non-Ukrainian military in Ukraine would be considered a "legitimate target", but has so far not commented on this latest development.

Context and Ongoing Hostilities

Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated a major offensive of Ukraine in February 2022, and Russian forces at this time controls about 20% of Ukraine's sovereign soil.

"This represents an essential component of our vow to support Ukraine for the long-term," commented the UK Prime Minister.

Top officials and senior officials from the "Coalition of the Willing" participated in the Paris negotiations.

He stated at a shared media briefing, he noted: "It establishes the framework for the legal framework under which British, French, and partner forces could operate on Ukrainian soil, securing Ukraine's skies and seas, and rebuilding Ukraine's armed forces for the time to come."

The PM went on to say that London would take part in any Washington-directed monitoring of a possible truce.

Protection Pledges and Diplomatic Positions

Lead Washington representative Steve Witkoff remarked that "durable safety pledges and substantial economic promises are vital to a enduring ceasefire" in Ukraine – alluding to a central condition made by Ukraine.

Witkoff said the coalition had "substantially agreed on" their work on establishing such guarantees "to ensure the citizens of Ukraine know that when this conflict ends, it ends forever."

Jared Kushner, former American President Donald Trump's advisor, also was involved in the talks.

Separately, President Macron Emmanuel Macron declared that Ukraine's allies had made "considerable advances" at the meeting.

He said that "strong" safety pledges for Kyiv had been agreed in the instance of a potential truce.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that a "significant advance" had been made in the talks, but cautioned that he would only deem efforts to be "adequate" if they culminated in the end of the conflict.

Last week, Zelensky suggested a peace deal was "mostly finalized". Finalizing the outstanding 10% would "decide the future of the peace, the future of Ukraine and Europe".

Remaining Challenges

• Land and security guarantees have been at the forefront of ongoing disputes for diplomats.
• Putin has repeatedly warned that Ukraine's forces must pull back from the entirety of Ukraine's eastern Donbas or Russia will take control, refusing any middle ground over how to conclude the war.
• Kyiv has so far excluded ceding any territory, but has floated the idea that Ukraine could pull back its forces to an mutually accepted point – but only if Russia does the same.

Moscow presently holds approximately 75% of the Donetsk region and around 99% of the adjacent Luhansk. The areas form the industrial region of Donbas.

The initial US-led multi-point peace plan that was circulated to the media last year was perceived by Ukraine and its partners in Europe as being strongly biased in Moscow's direction.

This triggered a period of intensive discussions – with all sides trying to amend the document.

The previous month, Ukraine submitted the US an updated framework – as well as separate documents outlining potential defense assurances and provisions for Ukraine's recovery, Zelensky said.