Everyday Homicides in Mexico Drop Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The average number of everyday killings monthly in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by fresh government statistics. However, security analysts have warned that murder numbers might not signal enhanced national stability.

Marked Decline in Daily Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in last November versus almost 87 when the President took the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the director of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had in these past months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the lowest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense organized crime infighting, alongside the government’s highly military operations to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the US. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an ostensibly sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Greater collaboration between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, security analysts warned that focusing solely on murder data to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is especially true considering the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be positive information if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the murder numbers and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it may obscure days when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Using the daily average renders high peaks of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be plagued by high bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a prominent killing of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to show their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a story of security. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas concluded.