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At first, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a firm approach on Ukraine. After issuing warnings of "significant consequences" last August in case Putin carried on hindering truce negotiations, the former president eventually imposed major restrictions on Russia's primary energy firms, these major energy companies. This move seriously impacted the Russian leader's ability to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, with his newly presented 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, that was drafted by American and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or European input, the former president has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Invasion

This proposal would effectively reward Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although bold statements that "The nation's independence will be upheld", much of the plan in reality undermine that very independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate experience, Trump seems to consider the war as a basic territorial dispute, as if ceding Russia a part of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the leader. Yet, Russia's war is not only about controlling a damaged area of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to eliminate it so it stops functions as an appealing standard for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that Putin's deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Border Surrenders

While maintaining in status the presently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would compel the nation to surrender all of this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a lengthy period of warfare, this concession would make Ukrainian defenses dangerously undermined.

This region is the site of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a key barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed way to Kyiv in case he eventually opt to renew the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a move that would make renewed conflict simpler for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, the proposal sets no such constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's campaign to depict Ukraine's democratically elected administration as extremists, Trump's proposal states: "Any extremist ideology and practices must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal places no obligation that Putin jeopardize his regime by allowing votes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the initiative makes Russia pledge not to "enter bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". But given that the Russian leadership has broken comparable accords in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of captured areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – how should the international community believe Putin this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international security guarantees. Although the proposal threatens a "immediate joint armed reaction" if Russia resume its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the details include fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also preclude alliance nations from deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the reassurance force, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from rebuilding his diminished troops, restocking, and reinvading.

World Reaction

An additional parallel deal apparently would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. Yet different from a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's most reliable protection against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, such as the US administration, to respond through arms to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not