Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
